Laurel A. Copeland Ph.D.

Mull, H. J., L. A. Graham, M. S. Morris, A. K. Rosen, J. S. Richman, J. Whittle, E. Burns, T. H. Wagner, L. A. Copeland, T. Wahl, C. Jones, R. H. Hollis, K. M. F. Itani and M. T. Hawn (2018). “Association of Postoperative Readmissions With Surgical Quality Using a Delphi Consensus Process to Identify Relevant Diagnosis Codes.” JAMA Surg. Apr 18. [Epub ahead of print].

Full text of this article.

Importance: Postoperative readmission data are used to measure hospital performance, yet the extent to which these readmissions reflect surgical quality is unknown. Objective: To establish expert consensus on whether reasons for postoperative readmission are associated with the quality of surgery in the index admission. Design, Setting, and Participants: In a modified Delphi process, a panel of 14 experts in medical and surgical readmissions comprising physicians and nonphysicians from Veterans Affairs (VA) and private-sector institutions reviewed 30-day postoperative readmissions from fiscal years 2008 through 2014 associated with inpatient surgical procedures performed at a VA medical center between October 1, 2007, and September 30, 2014. The consensus process was conducted from January through May 2017. Reasons for readmission were grouped into categories based on International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision (ICD-9) diagnosis codes. Panelists were given the proportion of readmissions coded by each reason and median (interquartile range) days to readmission. They answered the question, “Does the readmission reason reflect possible surgical quality of care problems in the index admission?” on a scale of 1 (never related) to 5 (directly related) in 3 rounds of consensus building. The consensus process was completed in May 2017 and data were analyzed in June 2017. Main Outcomes and Measures: Consensus on proportion of ICD-9-coded readmission reasons that reflected quality of surgical procedure. Results: In 3 Delphi rounds, the 14 panelists achieved consensus on 50 reasons for readmission; 12 panelists also completed group telephone calls between rounds 1 and 2. Readmissions with diagnoses of infection, sepsis, pneumonia, hemorrhage/hematoma, anemia, ostomy complications, acute renal failure, fluid/electrolyte disorders, or venous thromboembolism were considered associated with surgical quality and accounted for 25521 of 39664 readmissions (64% of readmissions; 7.5% of 340858 index surgical procedures). The proportion of readmissions considered to be not associated with surgical quality varied by procedure, ranging from to 21% (613 of 2331) of readmissions after lower-extremity amputations to 47% (745 of 1598) of readmissions after cholecystectomy. Conclusions and Relevance: One-third of postoperative readmissions are unlikely to reflect problems with surgical quality. Future studies should test whether restricting readmissions to those with specific ICD-9 codes might yield a more useful quality measure.

Lu, C. Y., R. B. Penfold, S. Toh, J. L. Sturtevant, J. M. Madden, G. Simon, B. K. Ahmedani, G. Clarke, K. J. Coleman, L. A. Copeland, Y. G. Daida, R. L. Davis, E. M. Hunkeler, A. Owen-Smith, M. A. Raebel, R. Rossom, S. B. Soumerai and M. Kulldorff (2018). “Near Real-time Surveillance for Consequences of Health Policies Using Sequential Analysis.” Med Care 56(5): 365-372.

Full text of this article.

BACKGROUND: New health policies may have intended and unintended consequences. Active surveillance of population-level data may provide initial signals of policy effects for further rigorous evaluation soon after policy implementation. OBJECTIVE: This study evaluated the utility of sequential analysis for prospectively assessing signals of health policy impacts. As a policy example, we studied the consequences of the widely publicized Food and Drug Administration’s warnings cautioning that antidepressant use could increase suicidal risk in youth. METHOD: This was a retrospective, longitudinal study, modeling prospective surveillance, using the maximized sequential probability ratio test. We used historical data (2000-2010) from 11 health systems in the US Mental Health Research Network. The study cohort included adolescents (ages 10-17 y) and young adults (ages 18-29 y), who were targeted by the warnings, and adults (ages 30-64 y) as a comparison group. Outcome measures were observed and expected events of 2 possible unintended policy outcomes: psychotropic drug poisonings (as a proxy for suicide attempts) and completed suicides. RESULTS: We detected statistically significant (P<0.05) signals of excess risk for suicidal behavior in adolescents and young adults within 5-7 quarters of the warnings. The excess risk in psychotropic drug poisonings was consistent with results from a previous, more rigorous interrupted time series analysis but use of the maximized sequential probability ratio test method allows timely detection. While we also detected signals of increased risk of completed suicide in these younger age groups, on its own it should not be taken as conclusive evidence that the policy caused the signal. A statistical signal indicates the need for further scrutiny using rigorous quasi-experimental studies to investigate the possibility of a cause-and-effect relationship. CONCLUSIONS: This was a proof-of-concept study. Prospective, periodic evaluation of administrative health care data using sequential analysis can provide timely population-based signals of effects of health policies. This method may be useful to use as new policies are introduced.

Copeland, L. A., J. E. Zeber, L. V. Thibodeaux, R. T. McIntyre, E. M. Stock and A. K. Hochhalter (2018). “Postdischarge Correlates of Health Literacy Among Medicaid Inpatients.” Popul Health Manag. Mar 29. [Epub ahead of print].

Full text of this article.

Health literacy may represent a target for intervention to improve hospital transitions. This study analyzed the association of health literacy with postdischarge utilization among Medicaid patients treated in an integrated health care system. Discharged inpatients covered by Medicaid (N = 112) participated in this observational study set in a single 600-bed hospital in a private, nonprofit, integrated health care system in the southwestern United States. Participants completed surveys within 15 days of discharge, self-reporting demographics, self-care behaviors, and 2 measures of health literacy (REALM-SF [Short Form of the Rapid Estimate of Adult Literacy in Medicine] and Chew [health literacy screen from Chew et al]). Electronic medical records data were incorporated to determine occurrence of 30-day/90-day postdischarge emergency visits and readmission. Half the respondents (54%) scored at the high-school grade equivalent on REALM-SF, while 46% scored adequate health literacy on the Chew. Forty percent (40%) experienced either emergency care or readmission within 90 days post discharge. Patients who were younger, female, or living with children had relatively better health literacy. Health literacy itself was not associated with readmission or postdischarge emergency care, although African American race was. Although Medicaid patients varied considerably on health literacy, this factor was not associated with adverse health care outcomes. Future work should better identify individuals requiring supportive transition services to reduce problems following hospital discharge.

Copeland, L. A., C. S. Swendsen, D. M. Sears, A. A. MacCarthy and C. J. McNeal (2018). “Association between triglyceride levels and cardiovascular disease in patients with acute pancreatitis.” PLoS One 13(1): e0179998.

Find full text here.

Conventional wisdom supports prescribing “fibrates before statins”, that is, prioritizing treatment of hypertriglyceridemia (hTG) to prevent pancreatitis ahead of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol to prevent coronary heart disease. The relationship between hTG and acute pancreatitis, however, may not support this approach to clinical management. This study analyzed administrative data from the Veterans Health Administration for evidence of (1) temporal association between assessed triglycerides level and days to acute pancreatitis admission; (2) association between hTG and outcomes in the year after hospitalization for acute pancreatitis; (3) relative rates of prescription of fibrates vs statins in patients with acute pancreatitis; (4) association of prescription of fibrates alone versus fibrates with statins or statins alone with rates of adverse outcomes after hospitalization for acute pancreatitis. Only modest association was found between above-normal or extremely high triglycerides and time until acute pancreatitis. CHD/MI/stroke occurred in 23% in the year following AP, supporting cardiovascular risk management. Fibrates were prescribed less often than statins, defying conventional wisdom, but the high rates of cardiovascular events in the year following AP support a clinical focus on reducing cardiovascular risk factors.

Cho, J., E. M. Stock, I. C. Liao, J. E. Zeber, B. K. Ahmedani, R. Basu, C. C. Quinn and L. A. Copeland (2018). “Multiple chronic condition profiles and survival among oldest-old male patients with hip fracture.” Arch Gerontol Geriatr 74: 184-190.

Full text of this article.

To improve understanding of survival among very elderly male patients with surgically repaired hip fractures, this study applied classification techniques to multiple chronic conditions (MCC) then modeled survival by latent class. Veterans Health Administration (VHA)’s electronic medical records on male inpatients age 85-100 years (n=896) with hip fracture diagnosis and repair were used. MCC defined by Charlson and Elixhauser disorders, medications, demographic covariates, and 5 years follow-up survival were included. Latent Class Analysis (LCA) identified three classes based on patterns of MCC, medications, and demographic covariates: Low-comorbidity (16%), High-longevity (55%), and High-comorbidity (29%). Overall, survival censored at 5 years post-op averaged 717days. The Low-comorbidity group was more likely to be Hispanic, less disabled per VHA determination of eligibility for care, with less risk of postoperative emergency department (ED) visit, and taking no prescription medications. The High-longevity group had longer survival. The High-comorbidity group had more MCC, more prescription medications and shorter survival than the other two groups. Accelerated failure time (AFT) modeled associations between MCC and 5-year survival by class. In AFT models, fewer days until first postoperative ED visit was significantly associated with survival across the three classes. About one in male hip fractured veteran patients over the age of 85 had high levels of MCC and ED use and experienced shorter survival. Hip fracture patients with MCC may merit enhanced post-discharge management. Close investigation targeted to MCC and hip fractures is needed to optimize clinical practices for oldest-old patients in community healthcare systems as well as VHA.