Tavr risk assessment: Does the eyeball test have 20/20 vision, or can we do better?

Michael J. Mack M.D.
Mack, M. J. and E. M. Holper (2016). “Tavr risk assessment: Does the eyeball test have 20/20 vision, or can we do better?” J Am Coll Cardiol 68(4): 353-355.
The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) analyzed the outcomes of thousands of cardiac operations to develop a risk algorithm. The STS Predicted Risk of Mortality (PROM) predicts 30-day mortality and major morbidity rates after the most common cardiac operations; subsequent studies also showed a correlation with 1-year mortality rates (1). The STS PROM and other risk algorithms, including the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE), logistic EuroSCORE, and EuroSCORE II, which have been developed and validated in surgical populations, have been used to assess risk in patients considered for transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). Despite the obvious invalidity of using risk algorithms to assess candidacy for a procedure for which these algorithms were not developed or validated, no alternatives have been available until recently.