Recipient characteristics and morbidity and mortality after liver transplantation.
James F. Trotter M.D.
Asrani, S. K., G. Saracino, J. G. O’Leary, S. Gonzales, P. Kim, G. McKenna, G. Klintmalm and J. Trotter (2018). “Recipient characteristics and morbidity and mortality after liver transplantation.” J Hepatol. Feb 14. [Epub ahead of print].
BACKGROUND: Over the last decade, liver transplantation of sicker, older non-hepatitis C cirrhotics with multiple co-morbidities has increased in the United States. METHODS: We sought to identify a parsimonious set of recipient factors among HCV negative adult transplant recipients associated with significant morbidity and mortality within 5 years after liver transplantation using national (n=31,829, 2002-2015) and center specific data. Coefficients of relevant recipient factors were converted to weighted points and scaled from 0-5. Recipient factors associated with graft failure included: ventilator support (5 pts; HR 1.59, 95% CI 1.48-1.72); recipient age >60 years (3 pts; HR 1.29, 95% CI 1.23-1.36); hemodialysis (3 pts; HR 1.26, 95% CI 1.16-1.37); diabetes (2 pts; HR 1.20, 95% CI 1.14-1.27); or serum creatinine >/=1.5mg/dL without hemodialysis (2 pts; HR 1.15, 95% CI 1.09-1.22). RESULTS: Graft survival within 5 years based on points (any combination) was 77.2% (0-4), 69.1% (5-8) and 57.9% (>8). In recipients with > 8 points, graft survival was 42% (MELD<25) and 50% (MELD 25-35) in recipients receiving donors with donor risk index >1.7. In center specific data within the first year, subjects with >/= 5 points (vs. 0-4) had longer hospitalization (11 vs. 8 days, p<0.01), higher admissions for rehabilitation (12.3% versus 2.7%, p<0.01), and higher incidence of cardiac disease (14.2% vs. 5.3%, p<0.01) and stage 3 chronic kidney disease (78.6% vs. 39.5%, p=0.03) within 5 years. CONCLUSION: The impact of co-morbidities in a MELD based organ allocation system needs to be reassessed. The proposed clinical tool may be helpful for center specific assessment of risk of graft failure in non HCV patients and discussion regarding relevant morbidity in selected subsets. LAY SUMMARY: Over the last decade, liver transplantation of sicker, older patient with multiple co-morbidities has increased. In this study, we show that a set of recipient factors (recipient age>60 years, ventilator status, diabetes, hemodialysis and creatinine>1.5mg/dL) can help identify patients that may not do well after transplant. Transplanting sicker organs in patients with certain combinations of these characteristics further leads to lower survival.