Meld-Grail-Na: Glomerular Filtration Rate and Mortality on Liver-Transplant Waiting List.
Sumeet K. Asrani M.D.
Asrani, S. K., L. W. Jennings, W. R. Kim, P. Kamath, J. Levitsky, M. K. Nadim, G. Testa, M. Leise, J. F. Trotter and G. Klintmalm (2019). “Meld-Grail-Na: Glomerular Filtration Rate and Mortality on Liver-Transplant Waiting List.” Hepatology Sep 16. [Epub ahead of print].
BACKGROUND & AIMS: Among patients with cirrhosis awaiting liver transplantation, prediction of waitlist (WL) mortality is adjudicated by Model for End Stage liver disease-sodium (MELD-Na) score. Replacing serum creatinine (Scr) with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in the MELD-Na score may improve prediction of WL mortality, especially for women and highest disease severity. METHODS: We developed (2014) and validated (2015) a model incorporating eGFR using national data (n=17,095) to predict WL mortality. Glomerular Filtration Rate (GFR) was estimated using GfR Assessment In Liver disease (GRAIL) developed amongst patients with cirrhosis (Asrani SK Hepatology.2018; www.bswh.md/grail). Multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis models were utilized to compare predicted 90-day WL mortality between MELD-GRAIL-Na (re-estimated bilirubin, INR, sodium and GRAIL) vs. MELD-Na. RESULTS: Within 3 months, 27.8% were transplanted, 4.3% died on the WL and 4.7% were delisted for other reasons. GFR as estimated by GRAIL (HR 0.382, 95% CI 0.344-0.424) and the re-estimated model MELD-GRAIL-Na (HR 1.212, 95% CI 1.199-1.224) were significant predictors of mortality or being delisted on the WL within 3 months. MELD-GRAIL-Na was a better predictor of observed mortality at highest deciles of disease severity (>/=27-40). For score >/=32 (observed mortality 0.68), predicted mortality was 0.67 (MELD-GRAIL-Na) and 0.51 (MELD-Na). For women score >/=32 (observed mortality 0.67), predicted mortality was 0.69 (MELD-GRAIL-Na) and 0.55 (MELD-Na). In 2015, use of MELD-GRAIL-Na as compared to MELD-Na resulted in reclassification of 16.7% (n=672) of patients on the WL. CONCLUSION: Incorporation of eGFR likely captures true GFR better than Scr, especially among women. Incorporation of MELD-GRAIL-Na instead of MELD-Na may impact outcomes for 12-17% awaiting transplant and affect organ allocation.